| Hurricane Research Christopher Fogarty B.Sc, D.Met., M.Sc, Ph.D. Canadian Hurricane Center / Atlantic Storm Prediction Center / National Lab for Marine and Coastal Meteorology |
| Hurricane Michael (2000) Storm Summary and Forecast Verification Report Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada Complete Document (pdf) Links to the Figures: Part I Fig1 | Fig2 | Fig3 | Fig4 | Fig5 | Fig6 | Fig7 | Fig8 | Fig9 | Fig10a | Fig10b | Fig11a | Fig11b | Fig12 | Fig13 Part II Fig1 | Fig 2 | Fig3 |
| Case Study of Hurricane Karen (2001) Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada Report (pdf) Figures from the report: CAPPI and Doppler Imagery from XGO Track Map Surface Analysis (1200 UTC 15 October, 2001) Reconnaissance Flight Track and AVHRR Image Convair Reconnaissance Aircraft Photo of Storm Clouds SW of storm centre |
| Aircraft Reconnaissance Study - Hurricane Michael and TS Karen Jim Abraham, Chris Fogarty, Walter Strapp (MSC/MRB) Michael cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP Dropsondes 1-11 Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature Vertical Velocity Karen cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP LEG 1 - Dropsondes 1-4, 6-11 Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature LEG 2 - Dropsondes 13-19 Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature |
| ET Forecast Training Hurricane Michael Forecasting Exercise (COMET) Forecaster Training Notes on Hurricanes and ET (pdf) BMRC ET Forecasting Module Schematic of an ET storm |
| Personal Information Links: Weather Logbooks Career Timeline CV |
| This site is operated by Chris Fogarty. Last update 05 April 2008 Comments: E-MAIL |
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| Weather Forecasting Site - NovaWeather |
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| Kerry Emanuel (external examiner) and I at Dalhousie University after my PhD thesis Defence on March 3, 2006. Richard Greatbatch (PhD supervisor) and I after the graduation ceremony on May 29, 2006 |
| PhD Project: Numerical modeling and analysis of hurricanes moving into the mid-latitudes Project Proposal - (finalized 28 May 2004) PhD Thesis - final version (20 March 2006) ----------------------------------------------------------- Hurricane Juan CTRL = control run using observed SST CLIM = run with climatology SST Simulations of Hurricanes using the MC2 and JMA-type synthetic vortex initialization: SST analysis with storm track (late Sept/03) SST analysis (valid 27 Sept - used in model) zoom-in SST climatology (valid 28 Sept, Geshelin et al.) SST anomaly detailed VIEW with track MC2 model grid configuration Model simulations of SLP and 10-m winds: Animations: CTRL CLIM * NOBOG (no bogus) Near Landfall: CTRL CLIM COMPARE Simulated SWATHS of maximum winds Wind shear 10m to 200m layer: SHEAR CTRL, CLIM and best track (BT) PLOTS MSLP, MSW and SST TRACES Comparison between CTRL and CLIM total rainfall Animation of CTRL rain rate Cross-sections from model and dropsondes: 4-panel Model animations of theta-e: 850 mb 500 mb Cross sections of theta-e (CTRL and CLIM) Latent Heat Fluxes: 12HR 19HR Results of ensemble experiments Fictitious run with 26C SST up to Nova Scotia coast: Tracks Traces Landfall See the Hurricane Juan page for verifying data --------------------------------------------------------------------- Hurricane Michael Full storm track and SST Grid configurations Tracks/SST composite - 12km runs Tracks/SST composite - 3km runs SST anomaly Control bogus Plots of results Animations: SLP and 60-m winds (12-km control run with bogus) SLP and 60-m winds (12-km run without bogus) 850-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run) 500-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run) Rain rate (3-km control run) Model Output: Time series: theta-e Compare 24HR progs 19Z SLP/surface winds 19Z SLP/surface temp Landfall SLP/wind Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces --------------------------------------------------------------------- Hurricane Karen Storm Track with SST SST anomaly for 14 Oct 2001 grid configurations Model Output: Simulated tracks: 12km run 3km run Time series of simulated MSLP/MSW/storm-center SST SLP and cumulative rainfall animation Impact of vortex insertion (PPT) Pre-landfall SLP and rainfall pattern Pre-landfall SLP and wind pattern Theta-e at 950mb (3km run) Theta-e at 500mb (3km run) Rainfall comparison (different convective schemes) Rainfall comparison (different cloud microphysics) Summary of numerical guidance: TRACKS INTENSITY Karen pre-landfall SLP/Wind [CTRL vs run with Juan-SST: SST difference (JUAN-KAREN)] Results initializing Karen at CATs 2 and 3 intensity [CTRL was CAT1: 70 kt, 982 mb] Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces [PROJECT DIRECTORY] |
| Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2007: The use of a vortex insertion technique to simulate the extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael (2000). Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 480-500. Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2006: The role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures on the intensity of Hurricane Juan (2003) during its approach to Nova Scotia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1484-1504. Fogarty, C. T., and J. R. Gyakum, 2005: A study of extratropical transition in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996. Atmosphere-Ocean, 43(2), 173-191. Jones, D., and C. T. Fogarty, 2005: The acoustic heartbeat of Hurricane Juan. Acous. Res. Letters Online - J. of the Acous. Soc. of Amer. 6(2), 85-91. Abraham, J., W. Strapp, C. T. Fogarty, and M. Wolde, 2004: Extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael: An aircraft investigation. Bul. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1323-1339. Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 3-7 May 2004, Miami Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 166-167. Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Why did a category-2 hurricane hit Nova Scotia?: An explanation of the unusual intensity of Hurricane Juan. Canadian Meteor. and Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 32(2), 41-42. Ma, S., H. Ritchie, J. R. Gyakum, J. Abraham, C. T. Fogarty, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2003: A study of the extratropical reintensification of former Hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1342-1359. Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Hurricane Michael, 17-20 October, 2000: Part I - Summary report and storm impact on Canada. Part II - Forecast and warning critique. Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region Science Report Series 2002-01, 35 pp. [Available online at http://projects.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Michael_files/Michael_MSC.pdf]. Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Operational forecasting of extratropical transition. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 491-492. Abraham, J., C. T. Fogarty, and W. Strapp, 2002: Extratropical transition of Hurricanes Michael and Karen: Storm reconnaissance with the Canadian Convair 580 aircraft. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 497-498. |
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| Publications |
| ET of Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm track with SST DAY 1 - SEPT 16: SST (16/00Z) VIS SAT PIC: 16/1940 RADAR: 16/1800 (NOWRAD) Newport SKEW-T (12Z) 42RF mission: DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE WSPD: 2-6 9-12 12-18 THETAE: 2-6 9-12 12-18 RELH: 2-6 9-12 12-18 DAY 2 - SEPT 17: SST (16/00Z) VIS SAT PICS: 17/1525 17/2015 RADAR: 17/2230 42RF mission: DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE WSPD: 1-5 5-11 13-18 THETAE: 1-5 5-11 14-18 RELH: 1-5 5-11 14-18 CHC Storm Summary (operational summary) AOML page on Ophelia Aerosonde Flight - Sept 16 Synoptic-scale analyses (HH/DD UTC): SFC: 00/16 06/16 18/16 00/17 06/17 12/17 18/17 00/18 500 HT: 00/16 12/16 00/17 12/17 00/18 500 RH: 18/16 06/17 18/17 Rainfall analysis (courtesy of David Roth - HPC) |
| HURRICANE KATRINA SIMULATIONS (MC2) Animations (3km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate (1km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate Surface temperature pre-storm SST post-storm SST change in SST Anomaly 12-km tracks 3-km tracks Graphs of results Simulated rainfall compared with observations |
| Contact Info Canadian Hurricane Centre 45 Alderney Drive Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada B2Y 2N6 |